Climate-related risks and opportunities
AASB S2 paragraphs 10–11
The climate-related risks and opportunities that could reasonably be expected to affect the entity's prospects, whether each risk is physical or transition, the time horizons over which effects could occur, and how the entity defines short, medium and long term.
What the standard requires
- 10(a)Description of risks and opportunities
- 10(b)Physical or transition risk classification
- 10(c)Time horizons over which effects could occur
- 10(d)Definitions of short, medium and long term, and their link to planning horizons
- 11Use of all reasonable and supportable information available without undue cost or effort
Company disclosures (45)
Index: 10(a)–(d) map to section 14.2 (pp.117–130); the identification approach is in 14.1 (p.116).
Time horizons (p.117). Short-term FY27–FY30, medium-term FY31–FY35, long-term FY36+. They are selected to align with AGL's strategic planning horizons, with key milestones in FY30 and 2035 for energy portfolio transition plans, and are used in strategic decision making.
Transition risks (pp.118–123). Policy and regulatory changes; access to capital; portfolio transition delay; changing customer preferences; stakeholder expectations.
Physical risks (pp.124–127). Vulnerability of AGL's energy assets to climate-related hazards (acute: bushfire; chronic: drought, wind drought); vulnerability of non-AGL infrastructure to climate-related hazards.
Opportunities (pp.127–130). Customer decarbonization; energy portfolio transition.
Each item carries time-horizon icons keyed to the p.117 legend. Eight carry short, medium and long-term icons; changing customer preferences carries medium and long-term icons only, and its text calls the short-term impact immaterial (p.122).
AMP takes a considered approach in identifying and assessing climate‑related risks and opportunities that could reasonably be expected to affect our prospects. This process combines qualitative, and where available, quantitative insights to understand potential impacts on AMP's business model.
Our assessment draws upon AMP's existing risk management framework and climate scenario analysis supported by input from internal stakeholders across multiple functions as well as external sources, including an external expert consulted as part of the assessment. This process involves application of management judgement and assumptions to identify climate‑related risks and opportunities that are most relevant to AMP and our stakeholders.
When defining our time horizons, we considered AMP's existing decision‑making frameworks, including those used for credit risk management as well as strategic and capital planning. This approach is consistent with how we manage risk and plan for long‑term growth.
Time horizons: Short term 0–3 years; Medium term Over 3–15 years; Long term Over 15–30 years.
Physical risk: Physical climate‑related events impacting the value of assets due to geographical location
Description: Acute (e.g. bushfire, flooding) and chronic (e.g. rising sea levels) physical risks could adversely impact the value of assets held by AMP. Time horizon: Short, Medium and Long term.
Transition risk: Emerging climate regulations and compliance obligations
Description: Government policies and regulations may impose additional costs on underlying investment assets. Additionally, failure to comply with regulations may lead to litigation and penalties, including potential penalties associated with greenwashing. Time horizon: Short, Medium and Long term.
Transition risk: Investee companies and sectors fail to adapt to clean technology disruption and decarbonisation trends
Description: There is risk from underperformance of sectors misaligned with decarbonisation and shifting investor preferences to low‑carbon technologies. Time horizon: Short, Medium and Long term.
Opportunity: Increased demand for climate‑linked products
Description: Investing in the development and offering of climate‑linked products and sustainable options on investment menus where supported by growing market demand. Time horizon: Short, Medium and Long term.
Opportunity: Diversification into climate transition and resilient assets
Description: Investing in companies and projects that support climate transition, energy efficiency, and physical climate resilience enables AMP to diversify its investment allocation while aligning with its long‑term investment objectives, ESG objectives and members' best financial interests. Time horizon: Short, Medium and Long term.
The climate‑related risks and opportunities have also been categorised by the scenario under which each is likely to cause the most significant impact: Emerging climate regulations and compliance obligations, and Investee companies and sectors fail to adapt to clean technology disruption and decarbonisation trends, are categorised under the Net zero by 2050 scenario (+1.5°C) as Transition risks. Physical climate‑related events impacting the value of assets due to geographical location is categorised under the High emissions scenario (+3°C) as a Physical risk. Increased demand for climate‑linked products and Diversification into climate transition and resilient assets are categorised under the Net zero by 2050 scenario (+1.5°C) as Opportunities.
Time horizons (3.3)
The impact of climate change is considered over three time horizons aligned to the Group's strategic and business planning cycles and anticipated progress of sustainability initiatives:
- Short term: 0–1 years – Aligns with current budget cycle and provides a higher level of granularity.
- Medium term: >1–5 years – Aligns with Ampol's business planning cycle and interim climate targets.
- Long term: >5 years – end-2050 – Aligns with timeframe of achievement of the Paris Agreement, Australia's net zero target under the Climate Change Act 2022 (Cth) and those considered within Ampol's Integrated Assessment Model (IAM).
Information base used to identify risks and opportunities – Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) (3.4)
Ampol's IAM is derived from internationally recognised climate and energy transition pathways developed by the IPCC and the IEA, adapted to reflect regional policy settings, market conditions, technology deployment and energy system characteristics specific to Australia and New Zealand out to 2050. The IAM is used as an analytical input to assess climate-related transition risks for Ampol's traditional fuels business and climate-related opportunities associated with economy-wide decarbonisation, including EV charging and lower carbon liquid fuels. Outputs of the IAM inform Ampol's House View for transport fuel demand, strategy development, strategic decision making, capital management and allocation, portfolio optimisation, and business resilience testing. In 2025, Ampol updated its IAM to incorporate the New Zealand energy system, updates to the policy landscape (e.g. Australia's New Vehicle Efficiency Standard), ongoing engagement with governments, and insights from Ampol's market signpost monitoring process.
House View of Transport Energy (3.5)
Given uncertainty of pathways and policy settings, Ampol's strategy and business planning is based on its House View, developed internally using transport energy sector-specific analysis and insight into Australian and New Zealand vehicle fleet composition, technology trends, market signposts and vehicle sales, compared to the IAM multi-sectoral modelling. The House View is broadly consistent with the IAM >2.5°C scenarios for Australia and New Zealand and considers the United Nations Gap Report 2025 (forecasting 2.3°C–2.5°C warming if NDCs are implemented and 2.8°C if no changes are made to current policies) and the assumption that global GHG emissions and physical impacts will be consistent with the IPCC's SSP2–4.5.
3.7 Climate-related risks and opportunities
Ampol has assessed whether identified climate-related risks and opportunities would reasonably be expected to affect its business prospects through application of an internal financial materiality criteria aligned to the ARMF.
Risk 1: Reduced demand for traditional fuel products due to shifts in economics, policy or customer preferences
Risk category: Transition risk. Nature of risk: Ampol is unable to respond to declining demand for traditional fuels caused by engine efficiency, electrification or fuel switching to lower carbon-based alternatives.
Risk 2: Climate policy and regulatory uncertainty impact Ampol's strategy and/or operations
Risk category: Transition risk. Nature of risk: Climate policy and regulation uncertainty could cause poorly timed investment. Domestic policy may be driven by international context, global commitments and bilateral or collective pressure, as well as domestic interests and societal values.
Opportunity 1: Development of electric vehicle charging solutions
Opportunity category: Transition opportunity. Nature of the opportunity: As customers transition to EVs, Ampol is providing on-the-go charging solutions in the public domain and charging infrastructure and service solutions in the private domain that are differentiated by rate of charging, reliability and location. Such solutions provide the opportunity to grow lower carbon earnings streams and support adjacent earnings streams from convenience retail and potentially from bundling charging and fuel offers.
Opportunity 2: Provision of co-processed and lower carbon liquid fuels to meet customer demand and support decarbonisation of hard-to-abate transport emissions
Opportunity category: Transition opportunity. Nature of the opportunity: Ampol is investigating lower carbon energy solutions for customers in hard-to-abate sectors, including exploring the role that lower carbon liquid fuels can play in its product offering as an import and/or as part of the manufacturing supply chain. Co-processed fuels combine traditional refining with small quantities of renewable-based feedstocks to achieve a blended product with lower carbon intensity than a traditional hydrocarbon fuel.
(Time horizon graphics for each risk/opportunity category are presented in the report but the specific horizon markings within the graphics are not reproducible in text form.)
Beach presents one physical risk, five transition risks and one transition opportunity (pages 44–53). It reviewed its previously identified climate-related risks in FY26 (page 43). The timeframe bar on each risk page highlights the horizons shown below.
| Risk or opportunity | Timeframe highlighted | Page |
|---|---|---|
| Physical Risk 1: Extreme weather events and long-term changes in climate patterns | Long | 44 |
| Transition Risk 1: Increasing cost of carbon | Medium, Long | 46 |
| Transition Risk 2: Reduced demand for fossil fuels and/or faster substitution | Long | 48 |
| Transition Risk 3: Returns on emission abatement initiatives | Medium, Long | 49 |
| Transition Risk 4: Exposure to activism leading to climate-related litigation | Medium, Long | 50 |
| Transition Risk 5: Unfavourable climate-related energy regulation and policy | Medium, Long | 51 |
| Transition Opportunity 1: Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) | Long | 53 |
Time horizons (Table 2, page 40): short-term is 0 to 1 year (annual business planning and budgeting cycle), medium-term is 1 to 5 years (rolling five-year outlook) and long-term is beyond 5 years (the forecast life of assets currently recognized on the balance sheet). Climate-related risks impact operated and non-operated upstream assets, in particular the core producing assets in the Cooper Basin (SA), Perth Basin (WA) and Otway Basin (VIC) (page 43).
BHP identifies four climate-related risks and one opportunity (Table 1, pp. 66–71), each with stated time horizons:
- Transition risk 1: Policy, legal and reputational (medium and long term)
- Transition risk 2: Availability and commercial viability of operational decarbonization technology (medium and long term)
- Transition risk 3: Accelerated decrease in steelmaking coal demand (long term)
- Transition opportunity 1: Copper demand (short, medium and long term)
- Physical risk 1: Physical climate-related risks (short, medium and long term)
Time horizons (p. 88). Short-term is up to 1 year, medium-term 1 to 5 years, and long-term 5 to 30 years (or longer to align with BHP's asset lives). They draw on the annual budget, five-year planning and life of asset plans, and on the timeframes in BHP's Risk Framework.
How they were identified (pp. 64–65). BHP applied judgment and says the list is not exhaustive: it covers those risks and opportunities that could reasonably be expected to affect cash flows, access to finance or cost of capital over the short, medium or long term. It started from the Risk Framework and strategic planning, grouped a long list thematically, and cross-checked against scenario analysis. Energy coal demand, uranium, potash demand and nickel demand were considered but not included. No risk or opportunity relevant only to a non-operated joint venture was identified.
Table 1 (pp. 182–187) sets out five climate-related risks and opportunities (CRROs), each with a description, type or driver, time horizon and key exposures. Short term is 1–5 years (the immediate financial planning period), medium term 5–10 years (aligned to strategic plans) and long term 10+ years (reflecting the 2050 net zero goal) (p. 175).
| CRRO | Type (driver) | Time horizon |
|---|---|---|
| Risk 1: shifting customer preferences and/or competitor decarbonization trajectories could lead to increased product substitution and loss of revenue or sales | Transition risk (Markets) | Medium; long |
| Risk 2: changes in climate policies may outpace decarbonization enablers for competitive industrial transitions, reducing competitiveness | Transition risk (Policy, Technology) | Short; medium; long |
| Risk 3: more frequent and severe physical climate-related hazards could damage and disrupt operations and supply chains | Physical risk (Acute, Chronic) | Medium; long |
| Opportunity 1: the energy transition and growing requirement for resilient infrastructure could drive increased demand for steel | Markets; Products/Services; Resilience | Short; medium; long |
| Opportunity 2: evolving customer preferences are increasing demand for lower embodied carbon and circular product solutions | Markets; Products/Services | Short; medium; long |
The Group runs an annual climate-related risk and opportunity (CRRO) assessment within its risk management process (p. 42). It identified six risks and one opportunity that could reasonably be expected to affect its prospects over the short, medium and long term (pp. 42, 45). Not all met the quantitative materiality threshold but were disclosed where they could reasonably be expected to influence primary users' decisions (p. 42).
Transition risks (Table 1)
- Energy system volatility, rising prices and supply disruptions (p. 46)
- Changing policy, regulatory and legal requirements to decarbonize and manage climate risk, described as the introduction of a mandatory carbon price (p. 47)
- Dependency on third-party suppliers and logistics partners to reduce emissions and adopt low-carbon practices (p. 48)
- Delayed adoption of low-emissions technology, including conversion of refrigeration and HVAC assets (p. 49)
Physical risks
- Growth and/or production of agricultural raw materials affected by extreme weather and climate conditions (p. 50)
- Resilience of store and supply chain operations, including manufacturing (p. 51)
Opportunity (Table 2): offering more sustainable products to meet changing customer preferences (p. 52).
Time horizons (p. 45): short term 0–4 years (FY30), medium term 4–10 years (FY36), long term 10–24 years (2050). Each is marked against them: all span short, medium and long term except the carbon price risk (medium and long).
Risks identified (p.123). The climate materiality assessment identified two risks that could reasonably be expected to affect the Group; neither is expected to have a material financial impact over the horizons assessed.
| Risk | Type | Timing (pp.124–125) |
|---|---|---|
| Risk of declining customer insurance and inadequate resilience to physical risks | Physical | Severity expected to intensify in the medium term and remain elevated in the long term |
| Risk of a disorderly transition to a lower-carbon economy | Transition | Severity expected to peak in the medium term, normalizing over the long term |
Each risk lists the scenarios considered and the risk types it amplifies. Risks come from material risk types rated "high" or "very high" and are disclosed in aggregate where drivers are shared (p.122).
Opportunities (p.123). Opportunities from banking activities and Australia's transition to net zero were assessed; none is expected to have a material current or anticipated effect over the short, medium or long term. The report points to the table on p.101 for how the Bank supports customers.
Time horizons (p.91). Short term about 3 years (the Group's strategic planning cycle), medium term about 10 years (divergence of physical impacts under different scenarios), long term about 30 years (maximum contractual term for home loans). Current term is the next 12 months.
PwC reviewed the two risks and p.123 against 9(a), 10(a) and 10(b) (p.383).
The report identifies two physical risks, two transition risks and one opportunity that could reasonably be expected by external stakeholders to affect CSL's prospects. It states that CSL has assessed them as not material and discloses them to provide transparent and useful information (p. 145).
| Item | Category | Time horizon |
|---|---|---|
| Physical risk 1: increased heat stress impacts operations, either through energy disruptions or increased energy demand (p. 146) | Acute and chronic | More pronounced over the medium- to long-term |
| Physical risk 2: extreme weather events damage parts of CSL's value chain, reducing operational capacity (p. 147) | Acute | More pronounced over the medium to long term |
| Transition risk 1: increased carbon pricing may increase costs of materials, logistics and energy pricing (p. 148) | Market and technology | More pronounced over the medium to long term |
| Transition risk 2 and Opportunity 1: increase climate leadership and ambitions to meet customer expectations (p. 149) | Market and reputation | More pronounced over the medium to long term |
Time horizons (p. 145): short term up to 2030, medium term 2030–35, long term 2035–50, each with a stated rationale (the science-based near-term targets; business strategy and operational planning; net-zero climate scenarios and where physical impacts are most pronounced).
Company index: 10(a)–(d), pp. 146–149.
Process (p. 80). Performed by external advisors with input from the Sustainability Working Group: a large panel of climate-related risks and opportunities was screened using peer review and risk modeling, narrowed down after internal evaluation, and prioritized by risk and opportunity management ratings and timeframe.
| Type | Risk or opportunity | Description (pp. 82–83) | Timeframe |
|---|---|---|---|
| Transition risk | Changing customer behavior | Customers' procurement preferences and requirements shift in response to climate change faster than Data#3 can adapt, reducing demand and revenue | Medium term |
| Physical risk | Weather risk | Infrastructure, operations and workforce affected by more frequent and severe weather events, including flooding and prolonged hot weather | Short, medium and long term |
| Opportunity | Stronger competitive advantage | Outperforming competitors by adopting sustainable practices and investing in climate-friendly technologies | Short, medium and long term |
| Opportunity | Development of new products or services | Novel offerings that address climate-related challenges or opportunities, involving investment in research and development | Short, medium and long term |
For strategic decision-making, consistent with business planning and budgeting cycles, short term is 1 - 2 years, medium term is 3 - 5 years and long term is beyond 5 years (p. 81). Separate horizons are used for scenario modeling (section 5.1.1, p. 81).
Downer prioritized five climate-related risks and opportunities (p. 59) and reassessed them as still valid in FY26 (p. 60). Identification drew on Downer's risk registers, strategy documents and prior climate risk assessments; workshops rated likelihood and consequence over three time horizons; results were prioritized at Group level (p. 59).
| Item (p. 60) | Type | Theme |
|---|---|---|
| Energy price volatility, including potential carbon pricing | Risk | Transition – Policy & Legal |
| Lower emissions technology investment risk | Risk | Transition – Technology |
| Extreme weather | Risk | Physical – Acute |
| Increased customer spending on infrastructure as a result of extreme weather events | Opportunity | Physical – Acute |
| Supporting customer decarbonisation and energy transition efforts | Opportunity | Transition – Technology |
| Time horizon (p. 60) | Physical | Transition |
|---|---|---|
| Short term | 2030 | 2030 |
| Medium term | 2050 | 2040 |
| Long term | 2070 | 2050 |
Both short terms inform near-term capital allocation decisions, and the physical short term aligns with the business planning cycle. Transition horizons are checkpoints on the decarbonization pathway, with 2050 aligned to the Paris Agreement objective and the Net Zero target. The physical long term aligns with asset lives and long-term maintenance contracts.
Three climate-related risks that could reasonably be expected to affect business performance are identified (p. 34).
| Risk | Type | Description | Time horizon (bar) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Climate hazards disrupting sites and operations (p. 35) | Physical | Combined effects of acute and chronic hazards on operational sites (hotels, retail stores, distribution centers, support offices, wineries, vineyards, bottling facilities) in Australia and New Zealand | Short, medium and long |
| Energy market volatility and policy uncertainty (p. 36) | Transition | Increasing electricity price volatility at all sites in Australia and New Zealand, from renewable droughts, heat-driven demand peaks and major thermal outages | Short and medium |
| Introduction of a carbon tax (p. 38) | Transition | Increased direct operating costs from a potential Australian carbon tax, and increased indirect cost pass-throughs from domestic and international suppliers under local and/or global carbon taxes | Medium and long |
No climate-related opportunities were identified that could reasonably be expected to affect performance in the current period (p. 34).
Time horizons (p. 34). Short term 1–3 years, medium term >3–10 years, long term >10 years. The short term is aligned with the typical three-year strategic and financial planning cycle; the Group does not typically engage in long-term horizon planning, citing constraints in financial forecasting over extended periods.
Identified items (pp. 73 to 80). The report identifies climate-related risks and opportunities that could reasonably be expected to affect cash flows, access to finance or cost of capital over the short, medium or long term, organized as physical risks, transition risks and transition opportunities (p. 73).
| Item | Type | Horizons marked |
|---|---|---|
| Operational disruptions due to climate-related events (p. 76) | Physical risk | Long (text: all horizons) |
| Policy and regulatory uncertainty (p. 77) | Transition risk | Medium, long |
| Market exposure (p. 78) | Transition risk and opportunity | Medium, long |
| Industrial decarbonisation and electrification (p. 79) | Transition opportunity | Short, medium, long |
| Diversify into minerals needed for the energy transition (p. 80) | Transition opportunity | Short, medium, long |
Time horizons (p. 73). Short term is 0 to 2 years, aligned with the two-year budget cycle. Medium term is 3 to 10 years, aligned with the 10-year budgeting and forecasting cycle. Long term is 11 to 30+ years, informed by the 20-year long-term forecasting and strategic outlook.
Basis (pp. 73 to 74). The analysis reflects current assessment based on available data, scenario analysis and management judgment. Items were assessed by reference to financial materiality, considering quantitative and qualitative factors such as nature, magnitude, timing and uncertainty.
GPT assesses climate-related risks and opportunities across our business model and value chain. We consider the climate hazards and transition drivers to identify where risks and opportunities are concentrated.
Transition Drivers
- Policy and regulatory change
- Changes to market expectations, economic disruption and impacts to reputation
- Technology change
Physical Climate Hazards
- Extreme hot days, heatwaves and rising average temperatures
- Drought/water scarcity
- Severe weather events including floods, severe storms and cyclones
- Bush/grass fire (increasing fire weather intensity)
- Tidal inundation from rising sea levels
Impacts identified for each risk category
Policy and regulatory change (Transition): Changes to regulation, energy tariff structures and land planning and building codes, potential supply constraints leading to expenditure uncertainty, and increased disclosure obligations.
Changes to market expectations, economic disruption and impacts to reputation (Transition): Decarbonisation expectations, including offset quality, cost and availability; liability and greenwashing risks; climate-related risk exposure of tenants; and opportunity to attract capital through our ongoing sustainability metrics.
Technology change (Transition): Energy insecurity in a transition to innovative technologies, electric vehicle uptake increasing safety risks and energy demand, and higher costs for infrastructure upgrades to meet decarbonisation expectations.
Extreme hot days, heatwaves and rising average temperatures (Physical): Increased capital and operational expenditure for cooling and meeting comfort expectations, and heat damaged infrastructure leading to utilities service interruptions.
Drought and water scarcity (Physical): Availability of water for operations, increased cost of water and increased regulatory requirements.
Severe weather events, including floods, severe storms, and cyclones (Physical): Damage to our assets resulting in increased repair costs, and disruption to operations.
Bush/grass fire (increasing fire weather intensity) (Physical): Direct threats from bushfires such as impacts on air quality as well as threats to surrounding infrastructure impacting operations.
Tidal inundation from rising sea levels (Physical): Damage from direct flooding of assets or flooding of local infrastructure or communities causing access issues.
Time horizons
GPT evaluates climate-related risks and opportunities across defined time horizons that align with the major redevelopment and refurbishment cycles of commercial buildings (which form the underlying assets in our portfolio). This process includes considering the Paris Agreement pathway to 2050.
- Short-term (0-10 years): Covers the current business strategy and a lifecycle within which most leases will expire in GPT buildings.
- Medium-term (10-20 years): Period within which most buildings will require lifecycle works on major capital equipment.
- Long-term (20+ years): Potential major redevelopments for most assets. Long-term climate-related risks outlined in this Statement are indicative only, and are based on trend analysis from climate risk modelling.
Our focus in this Statement is on short-and medium-term climate risks and opportunities. While climate-related risks and opportunities have been identified for GPT in the short-to-medium term (0-20 years), we expect to manage these within our existing business model and strategy in both a low-emissions or high-emissions scenario.
Information base used to identify risks and opportunities
Our climate risk assessment draws on climate modelling data, overlaid with policies across relevant government jurisdictions and property-sector technology developments. This analysis provides insight into potential financial implications for GPT, which can include insights into future operating costs, insurance premiums, tenant demand and capital expenditure needs.
GPT's Risk Management Framework was applied to assess the likelihood, magnitude and consequence of each risk to determine significant climate-related risks and/or opportunities. Based on current analysis, including scenario modelling across short and medium (0-20 year) time horizons, no climate-related risks or opportunities are currently assessed as significantly impacting GPT's business model or strategy over these timeframes. These assessments reflect our mitigation and adaptation strategies, as well as methodologies, assumptions and uncertainties inherent in the scenarios used.
Seven climate-related risks and opportunities are described on pp. 63–68, each with a stated time horizon.
- Physical risks (both short, medium and long-term): Extreme weather damaging property assets; Extreme weather impacting supply chain and logistics
- Transition risks (all medium to long-term): Increasing carbon and energy costs impacting operating costs; Increasing decarbonisation and technology transition requirements increasing costs and operational challenges; Increasing building standards and efficiency requirements impacting costs and asset value
- Opportunities: Sales growth from increasing demand for energy-efficient and lower-emissions products (medium-term); Enhanced asset value and operating performance through energy-efficient and low-emissions properties (medium to long-term)
Time horizons (p. 62): short-term is present to 2030 (current planning cycles and retail operations), medium-term 2030 to 2040 (planning and lifecycle considerations for property assets) and long-term 2040 to 2050 (the Paris Agreement, long-term transition considerations and asset lifetimes for properties). The longer-term horizon "extends beyond current formal planning and budgeting processes". An initial long-list of 30 risks and opportunities, drawn from desktop research, industry analysis and operating context, was refined through engagement across the business, including interviews (p. 71), and validated with senior and executive leaders (p. 63).
Materiality assessment process
The Group adopted a materiality assessment process to identify climate-related risks and opportunities that could reasonably impact its strategy, business model and prospects, building on previous work undertaken under TCFD.
Identifying relevant risks and opportunities:
- Map impacts and dependencies across the value chain by engaging with key internal stakeholders, including internal subject matter experts, benchmarking risks and opportunities against those externally published by industry peers, using climate-related scenario analysis. Iluka reviewed its physical risks and opportunities in 2025 through externally-facilitated risk assessments across Iluka's sites and projects in Execution phase, considering improved data resolution at sub-regional (asset) level.
- Identifying potentially relevant risks and opportunities by assessing whether they could impact the business model or strategy. Transition risks and opportunities were assessed at an enterprise level.
- Determining the risks and opportunities that have the potential to affect cash flows, financing access or the cost of capital across short-, medium- and long-term horizons. Iluka aligned time horizons considered with the Group's corporate planning process: short-term (now to 2030), medium-term (2030-2040) and long-term (2040 to 2050). The same time horizons were utilised for resilience assessments. The assessment considered a range of qualitative and quantitative factors including the nature, magnitude and likelihood of impacts assessed with input from management and internal subject matter experts.
Identifying material information: 4. Identify potentially material information about risks and opportunities by applying AASB S2 and the application guidance contained in the published standard. 5. Determine material information by assessing whether the information identified could influence decisions of the primary users of the financial information and this report. For transition risks and opportunities, Iluka leveraged previous risk and opportunity assessments undertaken in prior years pursuant to TCFD and considered them against those published by industry peers and TCFD guidance and literature. Where some level of quantification could be achieved (e.g. safeguard compliance costs and energy costs), the range of quantified outcomes against the scenarios informed the Group's view on materiality. For transition risk related to decarbonisation technology and transition opportunities identified, they are inherently material as they directly align to the current net zero ambition, predicated on it being commercially and technically feasible and/or aligned to overall strategic direction with respect to critical minerals. Physical risks assessed were grouped into their climate-related hazard categories and assessed on a qualitative basis by internal stakeholders. Materiality assessment was informed by the categories that had the highest number of physical risks rated as high risk or above, pursuant to Iluka's risk criteria (minor, moderate, high, very high and major) and enterprise risk management framework. 6. Consolidate relevant risks and opportunities into a table for validation by Iluka's Executive and for the Board's approval as part of Iluka's Key Risk Register.
Climate-related risks and opportunities identified
Key: Transition (T), Physical (P), Risk (R), Opportunity (O)
| Type | Description | Time horizon |
|---|---|---|
| TR | Increased energy costs – the energy transition that underpins efforts to reach net zero by 2050 has the potential to increase energy costs (coal, grid-connected energy, natural gas and diesel), which can negatively impact the Group's cost profile. | Short, medium and long |
| TR | Increase in safeguard compliance costs as a result of government climate change policy impacts commercial viability of Iluka's synthetic rutile (SR) business. | Short to medium |
| TR | Decarbonisation technology not commercially feasible – deployment of technology remains non-value accretive, impacting Iluka's ability to decarbonise its SR kilns in accordance with stated ambition (net zero where technology is viable, available and commercially feasible). | Short to medium |
| PR | Increased severity and frequency of extreme rainfall and storm events – exacerbated water management-related risks such as flooding of pits/mineral storage shed/stockpile, offsite water discharge and damage to associated critical infrastructure (roads, ports, and electrical infrastructure) negatively impacts operating conditions. | Short, medium and long |
| PR | Increase in frequency of extreme temperature days negatively impacts power supply, mining operations and processing facilities, and workforce health and safety and productivity. | Long |
| TO | Clean energy transition drives significant increase in demand for rare earth oxides, presenting upside opportunities for the Eneabba refinery and Iluka's critical minerals strategy. | Short, medium and long |
| TO | Increased deployment of renewable energy generation – higher and less predictable cost and reliability of grid-connected electricity combined with levelised cost of renewable energy and policy incentives drives opportunity for renewable energy generation, particularly off-grid generation, contributing to optimisation of Iluka's energy mix (supply and cost) and towards achieving Iluka's net zero ambition. | Short to medium |
Short-term (2025-2030), medium-term (2030-2040) and long-term (2040-2050).
Material risks (pp. 38–39). Two material climate-related physical risks are identified, each with a Long Term (Hot House Scenario) time horizon:
- Increasing natural perils costs: ongoing climate change is anticipated to continue to increase the cost of natural peril claims and reinsurance.
- Government intervention in insurance markets: significant premium price increases could increase political pressure on governments to intervene.
Both are categorized as physical risk. Other potential risks and opportunities considered through the climate-related risks and opportunities process were assessed as not material (p. 38). No specific opportunity is described in section 1.1.
Time horizons (pp. 39, 45). Short Term: 2026–2028; Medium Term: 2029–2035; Long Term: 2036–2050. Short Term aligns with the 3-year financial planning processes, and Medium and Longer Terms with broader strategic considerations.
Basis (pp. 38, 45–46). The assessment is made on an inherent basis; uncertain, planned or future mitigations are not considered. The materiality threshold is a projected percentage of Net Profit After Tax (NPAT); no percentage is stated. Identification uses reasonable and supportable information available without undue cost or effort, including past events, current conditions and forecasts.
CRROs (p. 58). The Group identified 5 CRROs relevant to demonstrate the impacts of climate change on its business model and future prospects, each with a summary table (pp. 60–66): (1) severe weather impacts the Group's operations (acute physical); (2) severe weather impacts the Group's supply chain (acute physical); (3) increased carbon regulation (transition, regulatory); (4) increased demand for goods and services resulting from severe weather (market opportunity); (5) increased demand for energy efficient products (market opportunity). The Group does not expect any CRRO to have a material impact on its financial position, financial performance or cash flow over the short, medium or long term, but has determined them to be qualitatively material. They are reviewed at least annually.
Time horizons (pp. 52, 60–66). Short term is 0–2 years (typical timeframe for financial budgeting and forecasting), medium term 2–10 years (strategic decisions on store network and supply chain planning) and long term 10–20 years (lifecycle of a typical store or warehouse location), consistent with the Group's planning horizons. CRROs 1, 2, 4 and 5 exist under each horizon and CRRO 3 is expected over the medium to long term.
Six climate-related risks and opportunities (CRROs) were identified as reasonably expected to occur and to affect the Group's prospects, based on evidence of emergence (p. 76). Information reasonably available at the relevant time was used (p. 72).
| Ref | CRRO (p. 76) | Type | Horizon (pp. 77–84) |
|---|---|---|---|
| PR1 | Devaluation of assets with significant exposure to rainstorm, flood, wildfire and sea-level rise | Acute and chronic physical | Current to long term |
| PR2 | Delays to construction schedules due to increased frequency and severity of weather add to costs of construction | Acute physical | Current to long term |
| TR1 | Emerging regulation requires new commercial buildings to be all-electric; fossil fuel dependence may contribute to a decline in investor and tenant demand | Transition, legal and market | Medium to long term |
| TR2 | Increased cost of materials as suppliers/manufacturers pass through cost of decarbonization | Transition, legal and market | Current to long term |
| TR3 | Regulation requires rapid carbon reductions | Transition, legal | Medium to long term |
| TO1 | Opportunity to attract capital with more climate-resilient assets/products | Transition opportunity, market | Current to long term |
Time frames (p. 76): short term 1 to 5 years (strategic planning cycles); medium term 6 to 10 years (real estate planning and development cycles); long term 11 to 25 years (asset life cycle and longer dated development project delivery).
Time horizons (p. 56). Short-term is 0–5 years, medium-term 6–10 years and long-term 11–25 years. The short-term horizon aligns with the five-year financial planning cycle, the Business Resilience Framework (BRF) short-term horizon and the 2030 Scope 1 and 2 net emissions targets; the long-term horizon aligns with the BRF long-term horizon and the 2040 Scope 1 and 2 net-zero target.
Risks and opportunities (pp. 62–65). Only those that could reasonably be expected to affect cash flows, access to finance or cost of capital are disclosed (p. 60).
| Item | Type | Time horizon |
|---|---|---|
| Damage to Metcash's facilities and equipment and operational disruptions (extreme weather: bushfire, flood, extreme storms and cyclones) | Physical risk | Most likely medium and long-term, with a chance of short-term |
| Disruptions to Metcash's outbound supply chain | Physical risk | Short, medium and long-term |
| Increased operating costs due to rising energy prices and fuel costs | Transition risk | Medium and long-term |
| Climate resilience in the operations and supply chain | Opportunity | Medium and long-term |
Eight CRROs are listed (p. 78). The seven judged material each have an impact assessment (pp. 80–86), with the mid-warming scenario as the base case.
| CRRO | Type | Material | Base-case horizons |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Change in customer preference | Transition opportunity | Yes | Short |
| 2 Cost of sustainable materials | Transition risk | Yes | Medium, long |
| 3 Cost of carbon offsets | Transition risk | Yes | Medium, long |
| 4 Changing regulations and government intervention | Transition risk | Yes | Medium, long |
| 5 Access to and cost of capital | Transition risk | No | Not given |
| 6 Physical risk to assets | Physical risk | Yes | Medium, long |
| 7 Physical risk to people | Physical risk | Yes | Medium, long |
| 8 Physical risk to supply chain | Physical risk | Yes | Long |
Time horizons (p. 77): short-term 0–2 years (short-term financial planning period); medium-term 2–10 years (valuation horizon of investment property and strategic asset planning); long-term 10+ years, extending to at least 2050. CRRO 5 is not currently considered a material risk to capital access and will be monitored (p. 78).
The Group identified five climate-related risks through its Enterprise Risk Management Framework (ERMF), listed on page 107. Each is classed as transition or physical and given a time horizon (pages 108–117).
| Risk | Category | Time horizon |
|---|---|---|
| CR1 Loss of support from key suppliers | Policy, market and reputation transition risk | Long term |
| CR2 Reduced global demand for thermal coal as an energy source | Market and policy transition risk | Medium to long term |
| CR3 Increased conditions or restrictions on right to mine and related activities | Policy and legal transition risk | Medium to long term |
| CR4 Increased decarbonisation regulation or emissions reduction targets | Policy transition risk | Short to medium term |
| CR5 Extreme weather-related events | Acute physical risk | Medium term |
The Group did not identify any climate-related opportunities that could reasonably be expected to affect its prospects within the reporting period (page 107).
Time horizons (page 106). Short term is 0 to 3 years, medium term is up to 2040 and long term is beyond 2040, aligned to the Group's operational and capital planning cycles. The Group used reasonable and supportable information available at the reporting date without undue cost or effort (page 99).
Risks and opportunities (p. 72). Five climate-related risks and opportunities (CRROs) are disclosed, each with a driver, description and type. They were consolidated from an initial long list and are presented as residual, after existing controls.
| # | Driver | Category | Type |
|---|---|---|---|
| CRR1 | Acute climate hazards | Risk – Physical | Acute |
| CRR2 | Water stress and drought | Risk – Physical | Chronic |
| CRR3 | Increasing input and supply costs | Risk – Transition | Market |
| CRR4 | Evolving stakeholder and climate policy expectations | Risk – Transition | Policy and Legal, Reputation |
| CRO1 | Market differentiation through resource-efficient and climate-resilient buildings | Opportunity – Transition | Technology, Energy Source |
Time horizons (p. 74). Short term is to 2030, aligned with the five-year strategic planning horizon adopted in 2025. Medium term is 2031–2050, aligned with the Net Zero target and the primary transition and physical scenario horizons. Long term is 2051–2070, extending to capture physical risks to existing and planned data centers over their operating lives. Anticipated effects of each CRRO are described for the short, medium and long term (pp. 77–81).
Nickel Industries recognises that climate change has the potential to affect its operations, supply chain and broader business models through both physical and transition-related impacts. The Group has undertaken climate-related risk and opportunity assessments to understand where these impacts may arise across its operations and value chain.
Time horizons Short: to 2030 – aligns with the Group's near-term operational and capital planning cycles, including budgeting, maintenance programs and incremental optimisation initiatives, and the period over which near-term climate-related physical risks and regulatory developments are most reasonably assessable.
Medium: to 2040 – captures the period over which more substantive changes in technology, market conditions and climate policy settings are expected to emerge, relevant for assessing resilience of existing processing assets and value-chain requirements.
Long: to 2050 – aligns with widely adopted global decarbonisation benchmarks and net-zero objectives underpinning climate-related scenario analysis, supporting assessment of longer-term transition risks and opportunities.
Physical risks identified (chronic and acute), each with time horizon short/medium/long and status 'Increasing':
- Higher Temperatures, Extreme Heat, Solar Radiation & Heatwaves (Time Horizon: Short, medium, and long)
- Sea Level Rise (Time Horizon: Short, Medium and long)
- Extreme Rainfall and Flooding (Time Horizon: Short, medium and long)
- Extreme Weather including Tropical Cyclones (Time Horizon: Short, Medium and long)
- Landslide associated with steep terrain heavy rainfall and deforestation (Time Horizon: Short, Medium and long)
- Extreme weather - Downstream value chain (Time Horizon: Medium to Long)
Transition risks identified:
- Carbon Pricing (Time Horizon: Short, Medium and Long, Status: Increasing) – increases in carbon pricing across scope 1 and 2 emissions could directly increase energy costs, reduce operating margins, and affect long-term competitiveness particularly for Indonesian RKEF operations, with potential to further contribute to stranded asset risk.
- Energy Costs (Time Horizon: Short, medium and long term, Status: Increasing) – elevated energy costs increase production expenses across all forms of nickel production; sustained cost inflation may reduce competitiveness against lower-carbon producers.
Through this process, the Group identified a series of climate-related risks that could reasonably be expected to influence the Group's outlook, particularly with respect to cash flows and impacts on the balance sheet, over the short, medium and long term.
The climate-related risks and opportunities (CRROs) are set out as seven items, each with a description, a short, medium and long term assessment, the financial statement areas affected and management actions (pp.160–170):
- Transition Risk 1: project delays and supply constraints arising from increased demand associated with the energy transition (p.161)
- Transition Risk 2: impact of climate policy and regulatory changes on financial performance (p.162)
- Transition Risk 3: accelerated decline in fossil fuel demand (p.164)
- Transition Risk 4/Transition Opportunity 1: increased volatility from a disruptive transition (p.165)
- Transition Risk 5/Transition Opportunity 2: reputation, stakeholder expectations and access to capital (p.167)
- Transition Opportunity 3: growth through the energy transition (p.168)
- Physical Risk 1: extreme weather events and changing climate impacts, acute (rainfall and floods, storms and cyclones, bushfires, extreme temperatures) and chronic (mean temperature and precipitation) (p.170)
Short term is 1–3 years, medium term 4–10 years and long term 10+ years (p.160). Origin says these are broadly aligned with its strategic planning horizons and reflect the investment timeline of long term assets, capital allocation, investor timeframes and targets (p.184). CRROs were identified using reasonable and supportable information available at the reporting date without undue cost or effort (p.184).
Pepper Money has identified the following climate-related risks that could be reasonably expected to affect the Group's prospects:
- Extreme weather events – Physical.
- Macro-economic transition risk – Transition.
An increase in frequency and severity of extreme weather events across insured (bushfire, flood, cyclone and storms) and uninsured perils (coastal inundation and coastal erosion) may impact the security underpinning each mortgage or asset finance loan contract, particularly where a shortfall in insurance is present impacting the borrower's ability to repay the loan liability. Transition risks will have a broader impact on the economy by driving up implied carbon prices placing upward pressure on key macro-economic variables such as inflation and cash rates that can impact Pepper Money's profitability. These outcomes could reasonably be expected to be more material in the medium to long term time horizons.
Time horizons
Pepper Money has defined the time horizons based on when the climate-related factors could reasonably be expected to occur. As at 31 December 2025, the following time horizons were identified:
- Short term (0 – 12 months) – the operational Budget is approved by the Board annually with specific focus on targets and deliverables in the oncoming year.
- Medium term (1 – 5 years) – aligns to the Group's strategic plan horizon of 5 years.
- Long term (up to 25 years) – aligns with the maturity of Pepper Money's Mortgage business segment and allows for meaningful outcomes of climate-related physical risk impacts in the scenarios to develop.
Information base used to identify risks and opportunities
In 2025, Pepper Money undertook a climate risk materiality assessment to better understand how climate-related risks and opportunities could influence its Business Model, operations, and financial performance over the defined time horizons. The assessment was designed to identify the most relevant climate-related risks and opportunities across the group's Value Chain, define time horizons aligned with the Group's planning cycles, and evaluate the potential impacts under a range of plausible climate scenarios.
Pepper Money's assessment commenced with an impact pathway analysis across five key Value Chain activities identified that support the Group's Business Model and drive financial performance: Mortgage lending portfolio; Asset Finance (vehicle/equipment) lending portfolio; Loan servicing and operations; Funding (debt and equity investors); Corporate functions and employees.
For each of these activities, relevant climate-related risk factors were identified, including physical risks such as severe weather events, and macro-economic transition risks driven by shifts in policy, regulation, market expectations and stakeholder sentiment. Potential opportunities were also considered, including the growing demand for climate mitigation financing. Management was engaged to validate the relevance and implications of identified risks and opportunities.
For each identified climate-related risk or opportunity, the Group assessed its potential significance by evaluating both the likelihood of occurrence and the magnitude of impact across financial, customer, regulatory, operational and reputational dimensions. These assessments were conducted leveraging the Group's existing RMF. Financial impacts were assessed over short, medium, and long term horizons, aligned with Pepper Money's strategic planning periods. The assessment reflected both quantitative insights using data available to the Group, and qualitative considerations where Management judgement was applied. The assessment process was performed by the ESG Working Group, and with the endorsement of the MESG Co and the process and outcomes approved by the BESG Co.
Pepper Money currently finances sustainable assets, including electric vehicles ("EVs"). At this time, no climate-related opportunities were assessed as material in CY2025.
Identification and time horizons (p. 11). The Group identified a long list of physical and transition risks and opportunities from external data, stakeholder feedback and industry benchmarks, then evaluated them in internal workshops and with third-party scenario analysis tools. Short, medium and long term mean up to 2030, 2030–2040 and 2040–2050. The short term aligns to the internal planning cycle and interim targets; the medium and long term align to fleet planning and the net zero by 2050 target.
| Risk or opportunity | Type | Time horizon |
|---|---|---|
| Physical Risk #1: Operational disruptions and asset damage (p. 12) | Physical | Long term |
| Physical Risk #2: Damage to airport infrastructure and disruptions to value chain (p. 13) | Physical | Long term |
| Transition Risk #1: Policy settings (p. 15) | Transition | Short to medium term |
| Transition Risk #2: Pace of technological developments (p. 16) | Transition | Short, medium and long term |
| Transition Risk #3: Stakeholder expectations (p. 17) | Transition | Short, medium and long term |
| Opportunity: fleet renewal program (p. 21) | Opportunity | No label given; new aircraft replace the legacy fleet over the next decade |
The physical risks are classed as long term for their expected strategic and financial significance, although acute weather disruption is likely across all time horizons (pp. 12–13). The opportunity is the fleet renewal program, a pre-existing strategic initiative (p. 11).
This section provides information about the climate-related risks and opportunities that could reasonably be expected to affect the Group's prospects, including current and anticipated impacts over the short, medium and long term.
Physical risk
Increased frequency and severity of weather-related events, resulting in increased claims - Climate-related physical risks arise from acute, weather-related events (such as more frequent and severe storms, floods, drought or heatwaves) and from chronic, longer-term shifts in climatic patterns (including changes in precipitation and temperature that may lead to sea level rise, reduced water availability, biodiversity loss and changes in soil productivity). Timeframe: Short, Medium and Long.
Transition risks
Exposure of QBE's underwriting portfolio to sectors adversely affected by the transition to a lower-carbon economy - Policy, legal, technological, market and reputational risks arise from efforts to transition to a lower-carbon economy. Certain sectors, such as fossil-fuel extraction and transportation, are considered more sensitive to transition-related pressures. Timeframe: Short, Medium and Long.
Exposure of QBE's investment assets to sectors adversely affected by the transition to a lower-carbon economy - Timeframe: Short, Medium and Long.
Opportunities
Investments in solutions to mitigate physical/transition risks of climate change - Timeframe: Short, Medium and Long.
Growth driven by new products or increased demand for products in response to market and technology shifts driven by the transition to a lower-carbon economy - Timeframe: Short, Medium and Long.
Time horizon definitions and identification process (para 11)
The identification of risks and opportunities that could reasonably be expected to affect the Group's prospects was informed by QBE's top risks process, scenario analysis and input from subject matter experts and key management across the Group. This assessment considered QBE's value chain, internal documentation such as top risks and scenario analysis outputs, and publicly available information about industry trends, regulatory developments and market expectations, where relevant.
Risks and opportunities were evaluated over the short (0 to 3 years), medium (3 to 10 years) and long term (10+ years), and involved the application of judgement, including to assess:
- the likelihood and magnitude of potential financial impacts, and the relevance of qualitative factors such as reputational implications, regulatory focus and strategic alignment;
- the expectations of primary users in determining whether information about a risk or opportunity could reasonably be expected to influence their decisions, based on consideration of industry developments, investor focus areas, and QBE's public commitments, recognising that such expectations are inherently judgemental and may not be directly observable; and
- the effect of planned or existing mitigation strategies in determining whether disclosure remained appropriate. Where mitigated impacts were not expected to materially affect the Group's prospects, qualitative disclosures were considered where there were indicators that information about QBE's approach to managing those risks or opportunities could be material to primary users' understanding of the Group's prospects.
The outcomes of the assessment were presented to the Sustainability Steering Committee, E&S Subcommittee and the Board Audit Committee.
The time horizons used to classify the impacts of climate-related risks and opportunities reflect alignment with the following:
- Short-term – aligns with QBE's three-year business planning cycle.
- Medium-term – includes the period during which the Group's interim operational and investment targets apply, and broadly aligns with the Group's long tail claims settlement periods.
- Long-term – captures the impacts that may emerge beyond the short- and medium-term horizons described above.
Key: Short-term: 0 to 3 years; Medium-term: 3 to 10 years; Long-term: 10+ years.
Climate-related risks and opportunities identified
A summary of the material climate change-related risks and opportunities (CROs) relevant to our business:
- Energy transition commodity demand: Customer interest in materials required for the energy transition is accelerating demand for critical minerals such as copper, aluminium and lithium. This presents an opportunity to strengthen our portfolio and capture growth in markets prioritising decarbonisation.
- Global technology development: Low-emissions technologies will support emissions abatement, improve efficiency, and enhance competitiveness. However, uncertainty in deploying breakthrough technologies at scale creates risk, as hard-to-abate emissions could remain exposed to carbon pricing for an extended period.
- Climate policy and regulation: Increasingly stringent and uneven climate change-related policies are driving higher compliance costs and impacting competitiveness, particularly in jurisdictions where carbon pricing mechanisms are in place. Our reliance on fossil fuels exposes us to rising liabilities and operational costs as emissions frameworks tighten.
- Social licence and ability to access ore bodies: Decarbonisation, and meeting stakeholder expectations for a just transition, are increasingly becoming a prerequisite for securing approvals and maintaining stakeholder trust. Failure to act could result in project delays, increased costs and reduced access to resources.
- Acute and chronic physical risks: Extreme heat, extreme rainfall, flooding, sea level rise and cyclones, and water scarcity, drought and wildfire impact worker safety, infrastructure, operations, supply chains and closure planning.
The impact of climate change is recognised as a principal risk within our Group risk management framework and underpins our overall strategy. In 2025, climate change has been elevated to a standalone principal risk to reflect its increasing relevance and potential to materially impact our business, encompassing both physical risks and transition risks and opportunities.
Physical vs transition classification
The risks are explicitly grouped as: energy transition commodity demand (opportunity), global technology development, climate policy and regulation, and social licence and ability to access ore bodies (transition-related), and "acute and chronic physical risks" (physical).
Time horizons
The "Relative impact over time (Conviction)" analysis rates each CRO's relative impact as Low (L), Medium (M) or High (H) across short-term, medium-term and long-term horizons:
| Risk/Opportunity | Short-term | Medium-term | Long-term |
|---|---|---|---|
| Energy transition commodity demand | M | M | H |
| Global technology development | L | M | M to H |
| Climate policy and regulation | L | M | H |
| Social licence and ability to access orebodies | M | H | H |
Definitions of time horizons
For planning purposes, we define short term as up to 2 years, medium term as 2 to 10 years and long term as beyond 10 years. Our short-term timeframe aligns with our annual planning process and is informed by market analysis, allowing us to respond swiftly to immediate market conditions and trends. The medium-term timeframe aligns with extended planning horizons for our growth and emissions abatement projects, while the long-term timeframe considers the full lifespan of our mining assets and infrastructure, as well as the continued impact climate risks and opportunities are expected to have on the business.
Information base used to identify risks
We use scenarios to identify and assess risks and opportunities, including those related to climate change, that may affect our business in the short, medium and long term. Transition risks and opportunities are assessed using short-term market analysis and our Group Conviction, Resilience and Aspirational Leadership scenarios for the medium and long term. These scenarios are macroeconomic in nature and reflect an integrated assessment of climate change, geopolitics, policy developments and broader economic conditions. Physical climate risks are assessed separately using bottom-up, asset-level analysis aligned to discrete climate model-based emissions scenarios, including intermediate and high-emissions pathways.
Our process for identifying material transition risks considers whether climate-related factors, such as regulatory and policy changes, technology developments, community expectations, and physical climate impacts, could have a material impact on our business model, strategy, or financial statements. Climate risks and opportunities are considered material when they could reasonably affect our ability to deliver on strategic objectives, maintain financial resilience, or require changes to operations or investment priorities.
Santos summarises its physical and transition risks and opportunities in a table (pages 72–84), each classified as a transition risk (Political, legal, regulatory / Litigation and disputes / Reputational / Market / Technology) or physical risk, with a time horizon marked S (Short 0-1 yrs), M (Medium 1-5 yrs) or L (Long 5-30 yrs) for each.
Risks/opportunities identified include:
- Transition risk 1: Climate policy
- Transition risk 2: Climate-related litigation
- Transition risk 3: Environmental and/or shareholder activism
- Transition risk 4: Human capital
- Transition risk 5: Carbon emissions expectations
- Transition risk 6: Access to capital markets
- Transition risk 7: Reduced demand for products
- Transition risk 8: Transition technologies not scalable
- Transition risk 9: Failure to achieve emissions reduction targets
- Transition opportunity 1: Transition technologies
- Transition opportunity 2: Low carbon fuels
- Physical risk 1: Flooding in the Cooper Basin
Assessment of time horizons is consistent with internal planning horizons (One year Budget, Five-year plan and long-term plans) used to support decision-making (Short term 0-1 years, Medium term 1-5 years, Long term 5-30 years).
Santos uses climate-specific scenarios to support the identification of transition and physical climate-related risks and opportunities. Assessment includes the relative impact of Santos’ transition scenarios on each climate-related risk and opportunity and physical climate-related risks identified through scenario analysis and assessed as material.
Information base: Climate-specific scenario analysis is used to support the identification of climate-related risks and opportunities through our strategy process, long-term plans, major project design and resilience testing for reporting purposes. Physical risk scenario analysis has been integrated into regional business unit risk reviews for operated assets and used to support the identification of physical climate risks impacting material non-operated joint venture assets.
CRROs identified
The Group identified four climate-related risks that are reasonably expected to affect the Group's prospects, and two climate-related opportunities that are reasonably expected to affect the Group's prospects.
| Physical risks | Transition risks | Opportunities |
|---|---|---|
| Rainfall, hailstorms and flooding | Policy and regulatory change | Enhance engagement with customers and communities |
| Bushfire | Stakeholder expectations | Support business partner transition to a low-carbon economy |
Physical risks
- Rainfall, hailstorms and flooding: Increased rainfall, hailstorms and flooding potentially resulting in damage to property and equipment, impact to life safety, customer visitation and construction costs. Time horizon: could reasonably be expected to occur over the short to long-term time horizons (short term 2026–2027, medium term 2028–2030, long term 2031–2050).
- Bushfire: While Westfield destinations are primarily located in major metropolitan areas, some are positioned near grasslands, woodlands or forested areas that may present a bushfire risk, particularly through exposure to radiant heat and ember attack. Time horizon: could reasonably be expected to occur over the short to long-term time horizons.
Transition risks
- Policy and regulatory change: Increased costs of compliance due to climate policy and regulatory changes within Australia and New Zealand. Time horizon: could reasonably be expected to occur over the medium to long term.
- Stakeholder expectations: Failure to meet stakeholder expectations, such as not achieving publicly stated climate-related targets or making misleading statements, may negatively impact access to capital and brand. Time horizon: medium to long term.
Opportunities
- Enhance engagement with customers and communities: Could reasonably be expected to occur over the long term.
- Support business partner transition to a low-carbon economy: Could reasonably be expected to occur over the medium to long term.
Time horizon definitions
- Short: 0–2 years (2026–2027) – Business planning and financial budget cycle.
- Medium: >2–5 years (2028–2030) – Forward capital expenditure, maintenance plans and strategic asset planning.
- Long: >5–25 years (2031–2050) – The life cycle of Westfield destinations are greater than 5 years.
Approach to determining relevant CRROs
The Group identified six CRROs that were considered relevant for disclosure, to support primary users' understanding and decision making. In identifying the CRROs that could reasonably be expected to affect the entity's prospects, the Group considered both:
- financial materiality thresholds used in general purpose financial statements
- the selection of CRROs relevant to primary users was informed by investor engagement and industry themes.
CRROs are subject to ongoing monitoring and assessment as part of the Group's risk management processes. The CRROs for disclosure will be reassessed on an annual basis.
Information base used to identify CRROs
An initial list of CRROs relevant to business operations was developed through external research, support and review from external advisers, internal sources including workshops with team members from across the business, and insights previously identified under the Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures (TCFD).
Internal inputs included the Group's Integrated Environmental Plan and portfolio climate exposure assessments. The assessments were focused on a broad range of physical climate hazards, and the degree to which the Group's destinations may be affected.
External inputs included publicly available information and competitor data, property and construction industry reporting, and international perspectives informed by climate scenarios from the United Nations (UN).
Four items are identified (pp. 169–176):
| Item | Type | Page |
|---|---|---|
| Risk 1: Impact of extreme weather intensification | Physical (acute and chronic) | 169 |
| Risk 2: Impact of patients being unable to access services due to extreme weather | Physical (acute) | 171 |
| Risk 3: Impact of carbon pricing across the value chain | Transition | 173 |
| Opportunity 1: Increased need for healthcare services due to climate-related health trends | Opportunity | 175 |
Descriptions. Risk 1: physical damage to facilities and inventory, and higher energy costs from more extreme temperatures. Risk 2: floods, bushfires, severe storms and extreme heat may disrupt patient access to services and logistics. Risk 3: carbon pricing may raise operating costs directly (carbon taxes) and indirectly (electricity prices, supply chain cost pass-through). Opportunity 1: more heat-related illness, respiratory conditions, infectious diseases and other climate-sensitive health outcomes may increase demand.
Time horizons. The graphics mark medium-term and long-term for all four items; the text for Risks 1 and 2 and Opportunity 1 also describes short-term effects. Short-term is 1–2 years, medium-term 3–5 years and long-term 6 years and beyond, tied to annual business planning, capital allocation and investment planning, and the long-range strategic outlook respectively (p. 168).
Climate change presents a strategic challenge for the metallurgical coal sector, with wide-ranging implications for regulation, markets, technology, and stakeholder expectations. For the Group, these dynamics create both risks that may affect the resilience of our business model but also present opportunities to strengthen competitiveness through adaptation and innovation.
The Group considers the potential impacts of climate change and climate-related financial risk exposures across three distinct time horizons: short-term (0–2 years), medium-term (3–5 years), and long-term (5+ years). These time horizons have been selected to align with the Group's operational and strategic planning timelines, including the life-of-mine considerations that shape long-term asset management and investment decisions in the metallurgical coal sector. They also reflect the timelines over which key regulatory and policy developments, as well as market and technology transitions, are expected to unfold and impact the Group's business and value chain.
| Time Horizon | Short term: 0–2 Years | Medium Term: 3–5 Years | Long Term: 5+ Years |
|---|---|---|---|
| Link to Planning Horizons | We prepare detailed business plans on an annual basis and review these periodically to ensure responsiveness to emerging regulatory, market and environmental developments. | This horizon aligns with the remaining years of our rolling annual business planning cycle enabling planning for effects of climate-related risks and opportunities within capital allocation decisions and operational adjustments. | This long-term outlook aligns with our current Life of Mine (LOM) planning, which typically spans up to 25 years. This will ensure that physical risks such as changing weather patterns or resource availability, are considered in infrastructure investment and long-term resilience strategies. It also ensures consideration of national and international climate policy targets (e.g., 2030 and 2050 targets). |
Climate-related risks identified
CR1 - Increased costs arising from evolving climate and clean energy regulations, including the Safeguard Mechanism and policies that cap emissions or increase the price of carbon. Risk category: Policy & Legal. Relevant time horizon: Short, Medium and Long.
CR2 - Failure to secure sufficient ACCUs from the market to meet Safeguard Mechanism surrender obligations. Risk category: Policy & Legal. Relevant time horizon: Short, Medium and Long.
CR3 - Impact to Development Approvals. Risk category: Reputation. Relevant time horizon: Short, Medium and Long.
Climate-related opportunities
While the Group is progressing various climate related initiatives, the Group has not identified any climate-related opportunities that could reasonably be expected to affect the entity's prospects and the current status of these projects is such that they have been assessed as immaterial. As such, no material climate-related opportunities have been disclosed.
Information base used to identify risks
Conducting an environmental scan to identify climate-related risks and opportunities that may impact Stanmore's business, strategy and financial planning is an integral step in the risk assessment process. The environmental scan draws on a wide range of internal and external sources to ensure a robust and forward-looking view of potential climate risks and opportunities. This includes consideration of market, legal, regulatory changes and trends affecting the metallurgical coal and mining industry and those affecting society more broadly. Assessment of future climate scenarios and projections, and historical data, and conducting industry benchmarking also forms part of the approach to the identification of risks and opportunities.
Four risks and one opportunity are identified (pp. 184–185, 192–194). The time-horizon markers below are graphics on pp. 192–194.
| Item | Classification | Time horizons marked |
|---|---|---|
| Volatile weather patterns and longer-term weather changes affecting development and operating assets | Physical risk (acute and chronic) | Short, medium, long |
| Delayed decarbonization pathways | Transition risk (technology-related) | Short, medium, long |
| Increased demand for lower-carbon products and technologies | Transition risk (market-related) | Short, medium |
| Evolving climate-related regulations and expectations | Transition risk (regulatory and reputational) | Short |
| Reduction of whole-of-life emissions through circularity initiatives | Opportunity | Short, medium, long |
Time horizons (p. 180). Short 0–5 years (2026–2030), aligned to financial forecasting, short-term decarbonization objectives and the annual strategy review cycle; medium 5–15 years (2031–2040), aligned to longer-term financial commitments and the development pipeline; long more than 15 years (2041 onward). Inputs (p. 184). The risks and opportunities register, scenario analysis, internal operations and key value chain providers, industry and government benchmarks, and professional services firms.
CRROs identified (pp. 25–32). Suncorp categorizes CRROs as physical risks, transition risks and climate-related opportunities. Six are identified, each page marked with its time horizons (S, M, L):
| CRRO | Type | Horizons | Page |
|---|---|---|---|
| Risk 1 Increasing weather-related claims costs | Physical risk | S, M, L | 26 |
| Risk 2 Claims capability and capacity | Physical and transition risk | S, M, L | 28 |
| Risk 3 Reinsurance pricing and capacity | Physical risk | S, M, L | 29 |
| Risk 4 Home insurance market intervention | Physical and transition risk | M, L | 30 |
| Opportunity 1 Disaster management response and recovery | Physical opportunity | S, M | 31 |
| Opportunity 2 Transition-related products and market opportunities | Transition opportunities | S, M, L | 32 |
Time horizons (p. 25). Short: less than 3 years, aligned with the three-year business planning cycle. Medium: 3 to 20 years, where risk management processes identify and respond to emerging risks and strategic disruption. Long: more than 20 years, capturing impacts beyond the short and medium terms.
Also considered (p. 30). Fossil fuel related stranded asset risk is determined to be low for the listed equities and corporate bonds investment sub-portfolio, because of the fossil fuel exclusions in the Sensitive Sector Standard.
Index (p. 215): Climate-related risks and opportunities, p. 190.
Risks (pp. 186, 190–193). Four climate-related risks are identified and classified in the risk tables: service disruption during acute climate events (physical risk; currently experienced and expected to increase over the medium to long term); a rapid and disorderly transition of the electricity network (transition risk; currently experienced, continuing in the medium term to 2030 and potentially beyond, 2030–2040); changing policy, regulatory and stakeholder expectations (transition risk; medium to long term); and reduced revenue from climate-exposed sectors (transition and physical risk; heightened in the long term).
Opportunities (pp. 187, 194–195). Three categories: optimize the network for current and future climate resilience; enable the climate transition through connectivity products and services; and knowledge sharing, engagement and advocacy on climate-related matters. Each has a stated time horizon.
Time horizons (p. 190). Short term is FY26; medium term is FY27–30, aligned with the Connected Future 30 strategy; long term is FY31–50, to support the planning and delivery of the net-zero commitment.
Significance (p. 187). At this stage Telstra does not consider any of its climate-related risks to be financially significant.
As an essential services provider supporting infrastructure assets across Australia and New Zealand, the Group recognises climate change as a long-term driver of its strategy and decision-making. The Group's customers are increasingly focused on adapting infrastructure to withstand climate-related physical and transition risks.
The Group has identified climate-related risks and opportunities through its Risk Management Framework, engaging internal and external subject matter experts to consider any potential effects to its business model and value chain.
Identified climate-related risks
- Disruption risk from acute and chronic climate events (Physical Risk): The Group operates and maintains assets vulnerable to disruption, including roads, communications networks and facilities. More frequent and severe climate events such as storms, heat stress, bushfires and droughts may limit access to sites and create conditions unsuitable for employees and subcontractors, resulting in lost revenue and increased operating costs.
- Transitioning in step with climate policies and market expectations (Transition Risk): As the economy transitions to net zero emissions, the Group will need to adapt to evolving climate policy and market expectations, including customers requiring strong climate credentials.
- Supply chain disruption (Physical and Transition Risk): Climate change can affect the Group's supply chain and input costs through (1) physical disruptions from extreme weather damaging supplier facilities/transport routes, and (2) transition impacts from policies or market shifts driving up prices of certain goods and services (e.g. fuel, cement, steel).
Identified climate-related opportunities
- Supporting energy transition build-out, operations and maintenance: The shift toward renewable energy and electrification in Australia and New Zealand brings new opportunities including upgrades to electricity transmission networks, renewable generation infrastructure and integration of new technologies.
- Supporting our customers in decarbonisation, climate adaptation and response to extreme weather events: Customers face challenges from decarbonising operations to adapting infrastructure to more extreme weather; demand for recovery work is higher as events become more frequent.
Time horizons
| Time horizon | Financial years | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Short | 2026–2028 | Alignment with the period over which short-term impacts are expected to arise |
| Medium | 2028–2035 | Alignment with the majority of the Group's longest committed contract durations |
| Long | 2035–2050 | Alignment with the useful design life of customer assets that the Group supports and the Group's long-term emissions goals |
Information sources used to identify risks and opportunities and inform scenarios (para 11)
The identification and assessment of climate-related risks and opportunities were informed by scenario analysis conducted in 2025. In the process, the Group considered relevant cross-industry information as an input to its corporate strategy, including climate-related information from Sustainability Accounting Standards Board industry-based guidance for engineering and construction, industry peers and parties within the Group's value chain (for example, climate disclosure from its customers and suppliers). Relevant climate scenario sources include, but are not limited to, the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Sixth Assessment Report (IPCC), the Network for Greening the Financial System, the Department of Climate Change, Energy and the Environment and Water Australia (DCCEEW), the International Energy Agency (IEA), Oxford Economics Australia economic reports prepared for the Group, and the Australian Energy Market Operator 2025 Gas Statement of Opportunities issued by the Australian Energy Market Operator. Each source has been used to inform the Group's climate scenarios and assumptions, such as the physical impacts of climate change in Australia (informed by the Australian National Climate Risk Assessment 2025), global adoption rates of electric vehicles (informed by IEA Global EV Outlook analysis), the proportion of renewable generation and the 2030 Renewable Energy Target (informed by the DCCEEW Renewable Energy Transformation Agreements) and other customer and industry macroeconomic trends (informed by customer reporting, Oxford Economics Australia and other industry bulletins).
Assessing climate-related risks and opportunities
Our assessment relies on both quantitative and qualitative factors to identify and assess material climate-related risks and opportunities and their potential impacts on our business model and value chain. Our assessment draws on climate scenario analysis, our Enterprise Risk Management framework and governance processes, as well as inputs from internal and external subject matter experts. Through this work we continue to identify, assess, prioritise and monitor climate-related risks and opportunities.
Through our assessment, we identified the following as material climate related risk and opportunities for our business:
- Transition risk (policy / legal) – Exposure to climate related government regulations that impose an additional cost of carbon.
- Transition risk (market / technology) – The demand destruction of traditional fuels driven by technological advancements (electrification of the transport fleet and improved fuel efficiency) and consumer preferences.
- Transition opportunities (market / technology) – Increased demand for low emission or alternative fuels such as biodiesel, renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), as well as EV charging infrastructure, are opportunities to retain and diversify revenue sources.
We maintain ongoing oversight of a broad range of climate-related risks and opportunities. While many of these are not currently assessed as material, we anticipate that additional climate-related risks (including physical climate risks) and climate-related opportunities may emerge over time as internal priorities and external operating conditions evolve.
Transitional climate risks
Exposure to climate related government regulations that impose an additional cost of carbon
Description: Increasingly Australian climate regulations and policy commitments, such as the Safeguard Mechanism (SGM), increase compliance requirements and costs, and may adversely impact our business. The SGM is currently the Australian Government's primary mechanism for meeting its international emission reduction obligations. As the Geelong Refinery is a high-emitting facility, the SGM poses a significant risk to unrecovered cost increases in our business in both the short and long term. Future regulations that mandate emissions reductions for the Group may be strengthened over time, increasing the cost of compliance and influence the Group's investment decisions.
Potential consequence: Increased compliance / operational costs, additional capital required for decarbonisation investments. Higher operating costs impacting the competitiveness of our locally manufactured products. Whether the risk of any future government regulation or policy eventuates or is material to the business will depend on the nature and application of the regulations.
This is classified as a transitional risk (policy/legal). Time horizons identified: short term, medium term and long term.
A reduction in demand for hydrocarbon fuel products
Description: It is anticipated that a combination of Government policy, improved fuel efficiency of vehicles and access to new technologies will result in displacement of existing gasoline, diesel and jet fuel sales over the medium to long term. The rate of this displacement is expected to vary across segments. The pace and timing of the transition will have a direct impact on the investment returns for new fuel infrastructure, and our ability to align our strategy with this transition will determine how effectively we adapt our infrastructure and operations to address this risk.
Potential consequence: Financial – reduced sales of traditional fuels, resulting in reduced revenue, and potentially lower margin contribution and obsolete assets and infrastructure.
This is classified as a transition risk (market/technology). Time horizons identified: short term, medium term and long term.
Transitional climate opportunities
Increased demand for low-carbon liquid fuels (LCLFs)
Description: LCLFs will play an important role in decarbonising the fuel pool by providing a drop-in replacement alternative for hard to abate sectors, important for key sectors including mining, aviation and long haul transport where electrification will be difficult or expensive. Government policy (both demand-side and supply-side) will be a key driver of LCLF uptake in Australia. As LCLFs are a drop-in fuel replacement, they are highly compatible with existing terminal and supply chain infrastructure. The Group's opportunity in LCLFs relates to both the manufacture and the supply of these products, with the Geelong Refinery central to the LCLF manufacturing opportunity.
Potential consequence: Financial – increased sales of LCLFs, resulting in retaining and increasing revenue. Reputational – through manufacturing and distribution of LCLFs, we may have the opportunity to strengthen our reputation as a credible contributor to the energy transition and respond to growing stakeholder expectations for low-emissions fuel solutions.
This is classified as a transition opportunity (market/technology). Time horizons identified: short term, medium term and long term.
Physical risks consideration
Our risk assessment identified a range of other climate-related risks and opportunities which are currently not reasonably expected to affect the Group's prospects. This includes an assessment of the Group's direct exposure to physical climate risks, which at this stage are not assessed as posing a material risk to our business or assets under any scenario or time horizon. We note that the Geelong Refinery, the Group's largest asset, is exposed to a risk of more frequent and severe extreme wind and storm events, which have the potential to interrupt power supply and processing reliability.
Time horizon definitions
Our scenario analysis was undertaken across three time frames:
- Short term = Beyond 2025 and up to 2030: Considers short-term external developments, including emerging government policies, uptake of emerging technologies, and shifts in customer demand. Takes into account the Group's budget and operational planning through to 2030.
- Medium term = Beyond 2030 and up to 2040: Considers more significant structural changes in energy systems, investment patterns, and regulatory frameworks. While the Group may be able to respond to these changes, doing so is likely to involve substantial capital expenditure. Policy settings may also significantly change over this time period, requiring ongoing flexibility in decision-making.
- Long term = Beyond 2040 and up to 2050: Considers possible long-term structural developments and end state pathways associated with decarbonisation and broader transitions across our economy and industries.
We initially conducted a climate risk and opportunity scenario assessment in 2024, evaluating results across three timeframes: short term (2030), medium term (2040) and long term (2050). During 2025 we reviewed this modelling and resilience assessment to ensure it remained relevant and aligned with the latest insights on climate-related impacts across the Group's operations, business model, and strategy.
Identified CRROs (pp. 62–73). Using scenario analysis and quantitative and qualitative factors, the Group identified four climate-related risks and one opportunity that could reasonably be expected to affect its prospects. Physical risks: extreme heat; extreme precipitation and flooding; storm surge and cyclones. Transition risk: carbon pricing. Opportunity: the Group's 50% interest in the Covalent Lithium joint venture. Time horizons stated in each CRRO table: short-, medium- and long-term, except carbon pricing (medium- and long-term).
Time horizons (p. 60). Short-term is one year (the 2027 financial year); medium-term is two to five years (2030 assessment year), aligned with the five-year Corporate Plan period; long-term is six to 25 years (2050 assessment year), aligned with divisional net zero targets.
Other risks (p. 62). Bushfire and drought, and reputational risk and greenwashing, were also identified but were not assessed as reasonably expected to affect the Group's prospects over the short, medium or long term.
Assessment (pp. 56, 60, 62). CRROs were identified using all reasonable and supportable information available. None of the identified CRROs was assessed as having a material financial effect in the reporting period for the purpose of quantitative disclosure. Risks are reassessed annually; scenario analysis is used at least every three years to identify changes in inherent exposure.
Risks and opportunities (Table 1, page 68). Policy transition risk: increased exposure to carbon regulation and policy. Project approval transition risk: increased complexity in obtaining mine approvals or commencement of new projects. Market/technology transition risk: reduced demand for coal in our export markets. Access to capital transition risk: reduced availability of debt/equity and insurance. Physical climate-related risks: inundation, bushfire and water scarcity. Opportunity: increased thermal coal production, to deliver superior efficiency and lower emissions intensity than lower-quality coals in like-for-like power stations.
Time horizons (page 63). Short term is a one year forecast (2027); medium term is the forecasting cycle from 2028 to 2031; long term extends beyond the medium term to end of mine life, which can extend for 20 years or more (2032 to 2050+). These are broadly aligned with strategic planning and decision-making processes. Each risk and opportunity table (pages 69–74) carries a Relevant time horizon graphic showing short, medium and long.
Materiality (page 68). Climate-related risks and opportunities (CRROs) are assessed against financial, health and safety, environment, legal and compliance, and reputation and community consequence types, together with likelihood. Financial impact is assessed against revenue, earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization, and/or Net Present Value.
Four items are described (pp. 214–216). WiseTech concludes that the impacts of all the climate-related risks fall below its materiality threshold of 5% variance to baseline financial forecasts, and reports them because report users may expect them to affect its prospects (p. 214).
| Risk or opportunity (pp. 214–216) | Type | Time horizons |
|---|---|---|
| Physical damage to critical data center infrastructure or power outages due to extreme weather events | Physical risk | Short, medium, long |
| Increase in energy prices and grid instability affects critical data centers and offices | Transition risk | Short, medium |
| Increased climate-transition policy and regulation raise costs for the global supply chain industry, with potential pass-through effects on goods demand and transportation volumes | Transition risk | Short, medium, long |
| Increased climate-transition policy and regulation increase demand for WiseTech products | Transition opportunity | Short, medium, long |
Short term is 2030, medium term 2040 and long term 2050 (pp. 214–216). WiseTech does not publish fixed long-term strategic planning horizons, so ten-year intervals were adopted to align with publicly available climate datasets (p. 217), with a justification printed for each year (p. 218).
Climate change and the energy transition are a strategic risk and opportunity for Woodside. Energy markets and regulations will continue to evolve.
Time horizons
Time horizons are defined as: Short = Third quarter 2025 to the end of 2026 (current); Medium = 2027–2036 (anticipated); Long = 2037 and later (anticipated). The short-term may impact current producing assets and sanctioned projects (projects that have already been subject to a final investment decision); the medium-term may impact current producing assets and sanctioned projects as well as opportunities under active evaluation but not yet subject to a final investment decision. The long-term could impact on both of the above short and medium term categories as well as opportunities beyond current consideration. These time horizons broadly align with those used for strategic decision making.
Physical risks
Extreme weather intensification (physical risk) – Short: Q3 2025 to end of 2026; Medium: 2027–2036; Long: 2037 & later. Climate change is expected to lead to an increase in the frequency and severity of extreme weather events. This could include metocean events such as cyclones, hurricanes, or storm surges. It could also include land-based changes such as increases in extreme heat days.
Transition risks
Reputation – Short: Q3 2025 to end of 2026; Medium: 2027–2036; Long: 2037 & later. Some of Woodside's stakeholders hold differing opinions about how to address climate change and the energy transition. This can impact Woodside's reputation, for example with investors, governments or communities.
Climate litigation – Short: Q3 2025 to end of 2026; Medium: 2027–2036; Long: 2037 & later. There are groups and individuals who are opposed to Woodside's activities. These groups or individuals may initiate proceedings or file challenges against Woodside. The types of climate litigation observed in the oil and gas sector potentially include misleading or deceptive conduct claims; challenges to regulatory approvals which may result in project delays; and claims seeking compensation for harm caused by extreme weather events or natural disasters.
Higher than expected cost to reduce emissions at operations – Short: Q3 2025 to end of 2026; Medium: 2027–2036; Long: 2037 & later. Woodside's producing facilities are subject to environmental regulatory limits including for Scope 1 and 2 GHG emissions. These vary across regions and have the potential to become more stringent beyond the trajectory contemplated under Woodside's net equity Scope 1 and Scope 2 GHG emissions reduction targets and its net zero by 2050 aspiration.
Lower than expected product demand – Short: Q3 2025 to end of 2026; Medium: 2027–2036; Long: 2037 & later. There are a wide range of possible scenarios and accordingly, there remains a risk that countries may pursue policies that lead to lower levels of product demand over time compared to the external scenarios that inform Woodside's analysis.
Transition opportunities
Increased demand for LNG – Short: Q3 2025 to end of 2026; Medium: 2027–2036; Long: 2037 & later. There are scenarios in which countries may pursue policies that lead to higher levels of gas demand over time than Woodside expects.
Increased demand for new energy products and lower-carbon services – Short: Q3 2025 to end of 2026; Medium: 2027–2036; Long: 2037 & later. Woodside is developing a number of opportunities that could lead to the profitable delivery of new energy products (such as ammonia) and lower-carbon services (such as CCS) to customers.
Lower than expected decarbonisation costs – Short: Q3 2025 to end of 2026; Medium: 2027–2036; Long: 2037 & later. Policy settings may evolve leading to a lower cost of asset decarbonisation than Woodside expects.
Information on the boundaries applied to this 2025 assessment includes: materiality for the purposes of disclosing CRROs has been identified by reference to financial materiality, consistent with the financial statements. In addition, the Report includes information relating to CRROs that, while not meeting the financial materiality threshold, could reasonably be expected to influence decisions that primary users of general purpose financial reports make on the basis of those reports. These material CRROs are relevant to Woodside's current value chain.
The Group discloses four climate-related risks and two opportunities (pp. 58–65). Only risks rated high or very high under its risk rating table were considered relevant for disclosure (p. 56).
Physical risks (p. 58)
- Disruption and damage to operations (stores, distribution centers and transport routes) (p. 61)
- Chronic and acute weather events impacting food production (p. 62)
Transition risks (p. 59)
- Impact of the economic cost of carbon through policy mechanisms on the business model and value chain (p. 63)
- Increased climate regulation, litigation and reputation impacts (p. 64)
Opportunities (p. 65): resource efficiency (optimizing resource use) and products and services (developing innovative low-carbon products and services). Neither is expected to have a material financial impact across the Group's identified time horizons.
Time horizons (p. 56). Short term is 0–3 years, aligned to business planning cycles. Medium term is 4–10 years, supporting decisions on near-term climate targets and delivery programs. Long term is 11–25 years, reflecting the longer-term nature of climate impacts and net zero targets. The first three risks carry an anticipated effect rating for each horizon under 1.5°C and >3°C scenarios (pp. 61–63); the fourth is described for the short to medium term (p. 64).
Worley identifies four CRROs that could reasonably be expected to affect its prospects (p. 41), each assessed under a 1.5°C and a >3°C scenario (pp. 42–45).
| CRRO | Type | Time horizon |
|---|---|---|
| 1. Increased demand for our sustainability-related work (p. 42) | Transition opportunity (Markets) | Short, medium, long |
| 2. Changing pace of the energy transition across markets (p. 43) | Transition risk (Markets) | Short, medium, long |
| 3. Increased frequency and severity of extreme weather events (p. 44) | Physical risk (Acute) | Short, medium, long |
| 4. Shifting climate patterns (p. 45) | Physical risk (Chronic) | Medium, long |
Time horizons (p. 41). Defined to align with the risk management framework: short term is 1 to 2 years, focused on the immediate financial planning period; medium term is 2 to 5 years, focused on the strategic business plan in line with the Ambition; long term is 5 to 10 years, focused on global trends.
Judgment (p. 57). Worley says it considered a broader range of CRROs and concluded that separate disclosure of other matters would not provide material information to users.
From an EROMF perspective, our assessment indicates that Yancoal's most material climate-related exposures relate to transitional risks associated with the move toward a lower-carbon economy. These include policy and regulatory changes, carbon pricing, evolving market demand, access to finance and insurance, and broader energy system dynamics. Opportunities relating to electrification and fuel switching were also identified through this assessment. Physical risks, including increased frequency and severity of extreme rainfall, storms, flooding and drought, remain relevant for some operations and are being monitored through our Climate Scenario Analysis work.
Physical risks: more frequent and severe extreme weather events
Transition risks: changes in policy, carbon costs, market demand and access to finance
Our Climate Scenario Analysis aligns with the latest international agreement on climate change, covering both 1.5°C and 2°C warming scenarios directly required by AASB S2 and reflecting the temperature goals of the Paris Agreement. The Climate Scenario Analysis was undertaken during the 2023–2024 period.