Origin Energy Limited

The climate-related risks and opportunities (CRROs) are set out as seven items, each with a description, a short, medium and long term assessment, the financial statement areas affected and management actions (pp.160–170):

• Transition Risk 1: project delays and supply constraints arising from increased demand associated with the energy transition (p.161)
• Transition Risk 2: impact of climate policy and regulatory changes on financial performance (p.162)
• Transition Risk 3: accelerated decline in fossil fuel demand (p.164)
• Transition Risk 4/Transition Opportunity 1: increased volatility from a disruptive transition (p.165)
• Transition Risk 5/Transition Opportunity 2: reputation, stakeholder expectations and access to capital (p.167)
• Transition Opportunity 3: growth through the energy transition (p.168)
• Physical Risk 1: extreme weather events and changing climate impacts, acute (rainfall and floods, storms and cyclones, bushfires, extreme temperatures) and chronic (mean temperature and precipitation) (p.170)

Short term is 1–3 years, medium term 4–10 years and long term 10+ years (p.160). Origin says these are broadly aligned with its strategic planning horizons and reflect the investment timeline of long term assets, capital allocation, investor timeframes and targets (p.184). CRROs were identified using reasonable and supportable information available at the reporting date without undue cost or effort (p.184).

Business model and value chain (p.184). Origin describes itself as an integrated energy company operating mainly in Australia across electricity generation, energy retail and integrated gas, with thermal generation, renewables and storage assets, a large retail customer base, an equity interest in Australia Pacific LNG (upstream gas production to LNG export) and investments in Octopus Energy and Kraken Technologies. It refers readers to the Operating and Financial Review for the business model (pp.160, 184).

Where items sit (p.160). A diagram maps each item to value chain areas. Energy Markets: fuel supply, transportation, generation and trading, networks, customer solutions. Australia Pacific LNG: exploration and appraisal, drilling and gathering, processing and transport, domestic customers, liquefaction and export customers. Octopus Energy: customer solutions. No material risks or opportunities apply to Kraken Technologies. Physical risks are aggregated across generation assets, key transmission and distribution networks, Integrated Gas production and Australia Pacific LNG gathering and transmission (p.170). Under the High Emissions pathway the most exposed parts are upstream gas production in Queensland and generation across the NEM (p.176).

Effects by business (p.172). Australia Pacific LNG is labeled most exposed, Generation transitioning, and Retail and Origin Zero, and Octopus Energy and Kraken Technologies, growth potential.

Transition plan (pp.177–178). The plan is organized around three strategic objectives; the 2025 Climate Transition Action Plan (CTAP) outlines the ambition to lead the energy transition.

• Deliver reliable energy through the transition: exiting coal-fired generation is the most significant single emissions reduction step; Eraring Power Station operations were extended to 30 April 2029, which Origin says is not expected to affect the 2030 targets or 2050 ambition. A helicopter-based methane monitoring trial was run (p.177).
• Accelerate renewable and cleaner energy: Origin aims to grow renewables and storage from 2.8 GW operational at 30 June 2026 to 4–5 GW by 2030. In FY26, 1 GW of the 1.8 GW of owned and contracted batteries committed began commercial operations, rising to 1.3 GW with Mortlake from 11 August 2026 (p.178).
• Unrivalled customer solutions: Origin Loop grew to about 1.6 GW across more than 409,000 connected services; 2,841 EVs under management (p.178).

Resourcing (p.178). $742 million of capital expenditure, financing and investment was deployed towards climate-related risks and opportunities in FY26, with capital investment made with regard to emissions targets through the capital allocation framework.

Uncertainties for the targets and ambition (pp.181–182). Timing of new renewables and transmission, NEM demand, permitting and approvals, community concerns, asset retirement timing and policy certainty.

Anticipated effects are shown by horizon, on a real, average annualized, before tax basis, mitigated and modeled to FY50 (p.160). Low is $50 million to $100 million, Moderate $100 million to $200 million and High more than $200 million, with no upper bound disclosed for High because of measurement uncertainty (p.160).

For the two items not quantified, Origin says measurement uncertainty is too high for the information to be decision-useful, and lists the line items affected (pp.167–169). Current effects: no material financial impacts for Transition Risks 1, 2, 3 and 5, though Risk 2 lists regulatory costs (certificate expenses, Safeguard Mechanism Credits) without amounts (p.162); Transition Risk 4/Opportunity 1 and Opportunity 3 cannot be quantified in isolation; Physical Risk 1 is not material (about $50 million). Each item states no significant risk of material adjustment is anticipated in FY27.

Scenarios (p.173). Low Emissions pathway: warming limited to 1.5°C, using IEA World Energy Outlook Net Zero Emissions, AEMO Green Energy Exports and IPCC SSP1–1.9. High Emissions pathway: warming of approximately 2.8°C to 4.6°C, using IEA World Energy Outlook Current Policies, AEMO Progressive Change, IPCC SSP3–7.0 and the Australian Government National Climate Risk Assessment. Physical risks are tested under higher warming, transition risks and opportunities under lower warming. The analysis was performed in FY26 for the Origin consolidated group (p.172).

Low Emissions (pp.174–175). The most adverse exposure is Australia Pacific LNG: an impairment of approximately $2,800 million of the equity accounted investment, with cash flows positive in the short term, distributions softening in the medium term and a negative cash flow tail in the long term. The Australia Pacific LNG analysis is primarily based on pricing assumption adjustments (p.174).

High Emissions (pp.175–176). Transition pressure on gas and LNG would be lower but physical hazard exposure would rise across all three horizons.

Conclusion and capacity to adapt (p.176). Origin considers its strategy and business model resilient across the scenarios and horizons. Levers: Eraring ceasing operation by 30 April 2029 with site repurposing (short term); retaining, upgrading or retiring the gas peaker fleet (medium term); investment-grade credit metrics. Uncertainties are listed per pathway (pp.175–176).